Assassination of Khamenei creates religious obligation for vengeance; Shia populations worldwide attack US embassies and interests (already occurring in Pakistan and Iraq)
Iran
GCC Shia populations
Months
Partially happened
Mar 5, 2026
n/a
Jihad declared by Iranian clerics in response to Khamenei's assassination.
Iran strikes energy infrastructure including oil fields across the Gulf making the GCC economically unviable
Iran
Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait
Months–years
Happened
Mar 12, 2026
n/a
Reuters reported that Iran escalated attacks on oil and transport infrastructure across the Middle East, while TotalEnergies confirmed UAE offshore production outages caused by the war.
Global economic crisis from Strait of Hormuz closure
Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz cutting 20% of world oil supply; Japan loses 75% of oil imports and faces economic collapse within 8-9 months; China loses 40%, India 60%
Iran
Global economy
Immediate–months
Happened
Mar 12, 2026
n/a
The IEA said the Strait of Hormuz disruption had already caused the largest oil supply disruption in history, with major oil flows cut by about 8 million barrels per day.
Iran targets desalination plants exploiting the fact that GCC states depend on them for 60% of water supply and have extreme water stress (Dubai at 17,000%)
Iran
GCC states
Months
Partially happened
Mar 13, 2026
n/a
Iran targeted desalination plants in the Gulf, with reported attacks causing damage.
Iranian command and control is decentralized so killing leaders does not disable the war effort; each region operates with its own orders and strategy
Iran
US, Israel
Early war phase
Partially happened
Mar 11, 2026
n/a
U.S. intelligence assessed that Iran's leadership remained largely intact and the government was not at risk of collapse despite the decapitation campaign and ongoing bombardment.