Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz cutting 20% of world oil supply; Japan loses 75% of oil imports and faces economic collapse within 8-9 months; China loses 40%, India 60%
Status, resolution dates, and latest source for this prediction.
Status
Last updated
Mar 13, 2026, 05:44 AM
Happened date
Mar 12, 2026
Summary
The IEA said the Strait of Hormuz disruption had already caused the largest oil supply disruption in history, with major oil flows cut by about 8 million barrels per day.
Latest source
World faces largest-ever oil supply disruption on Middle East war, IEA says(Mar 12, 2026)Citations and references. Sources tied to an update also appear in the chronology.
Supports ongoing or intensified disruption around the Strait of Hormuz rather than the first isolated maritime incidents.
Sources are mixed or neutral
Reuters reports on the assessment by the International Energy Agency (IEA) regarding the potential oil supply disruption due to the Middle East conflict, focusing on factual implications for global oil supply without favoring any particular narrative.
Reuters reports on maritime incidents involving sea drones and their potential impact on oil tankers, emphasizing the broader implications for conflict in the Middle East without showing a clear bias towards either side. The focus is on factual reporting of events in the region.
Bias analysis is AI-generated and may be imperfect. It reflects framing and emphasis, not factual accuracy.
Audit history: status and probability changes over time.
This update is added because the prediction moved from partial disruption to a clearly documented major reduction in oil flows through Hormuz.
The prediction refers to ongoing or intensified disruption in Hormuz rather than the first isolated incidents.