US attempts to fracture Iran by arming ethnic minorities (Kurds, Baloch, Azeri) but this activates Persian nationalism and unifies the population against external threats
US relies on expensive airpower ($1M missiles vs $50K drones) and Cold War-era military doctrine unsuited to 21st century drone and guerrilla warfare
US
Iran
Weeks–months
Not yet decided
Mar 4, 2026
n/a
Reuters reported that the war was still being fought through ongoing U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, with Israel having hit more than 200 targets in Iran as the conflict approached the two-week mark.
Ground invasion of Iran would be catastrophic for the US
Iran is three times the size of Iraq with mountainous terrain; most military analysts consider a ground invasion suicidal; Iran has been preparing for this scenario for 20 years
Iran sustains a long war through guerrilla strategy
Iran uses hide-and-strike guerrilla tactics from mountain fortress terrain; it only needs to be a persistent threat while the US is pressured to win quickly due to lack of political will and manufacturing capacity
Iran deliberately provokes continued escalation through attacks on GCC and Israel forcing the US to either retreat (losing credibility) or invade (falling into a trap)