Predictions

Iran is three times the size of Iraq with mountainous terrain; most military analysts consider a ground invasion suicidal; Iran has been preparing for this scenario for 20 years

Ground invasion of Iran would be catastrophic for the US

Carpet bombing cities unifies urban progressives with rural religious populations eliminating the main internal division in Iranian society

Iran becomes stronger internally through the war

Ethnic insurgency strategy activates 5,000-year-old Persian civilizational identity giving the population a deep sense of purpose and cohesion

Iran becomes stronger internally through the war

Iran uses hide-and-strike guerrilla tactics from mountain fortress terrain; it only needs to be a persistent threat while the US is pressured to win quickly due to lack of political will and manufacturing capacity

Iran sustains a long war through guerrilla strategy

Iran deliberately provokes continued escalation through attacks on GCC and Israel forcing the US to either retreat (losing credibility) or invade (falling into a trap)

Iran draws the US into an unwinnable ground war

Eschatological convergence across Jewish extremist, Christian Zionist, and Freemason traditions all require the Third Temple; Israeli political and religious leaders actively discuss this; the war provides cover for the act

Al-Aqsa mosque will be destroyed to build the Third Temple

Air war fails to force surrender; inverted cost pyramid (air-heavy) is unsustainable; Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Iran all have strategic incentives to draw the US into a ground war; mission creep escalates involvement

US will send ground troops and institute a national draft

Escalation ladder must be followed sequentially and biochemical weapons haven't been used yet; Israel prefers a prolonged war that weakens the US; political/moral taboo and multi-dimensional constraints (troop morale, public opinion, ally relations) prevent use

Nuclear weapons will not be used in this war

Iran selectively controls Strait of Hormuz passage (letting allies through, blocking enemies) and calibrates drone strikes to reward cooperation and punish resistance giving it more strategic flexibility than the US

Iran gains escalation control over the conflict

Saudi Arabia seeks a conflict where the US, Israel, and Iran weaken each other; with oil reserves depleting it must act now to control regional trade routes or face irrelevance

Saudi Arabia maneuvers to outlast all rivals